Therefore, to not be able to run a level of real expenditure as in previous years, it is highly probable that the economy will lose the driving force that has been moving in the last five years. Charles Schwabs opinions are not widely known. Thus, a reasonable forecast is one that puts the growth rate of GDP at around 2.5% for 2009, substantially lower than the average of the previous three years. In addition, amid the weakening of oil prices, you will appreciate also that fiscal accounts recorded a significant deficit. If in 2008, the public sector will close their accounts with deficit while the crude prices anticipates the environment of the US $90 per barrel, a price infer everything indicates that the fiscal accounts will accuse the coup of the contraction of only Venezuela export product prices. Similarly, the external accounts of Venezuela, which have shown significant positive balances over 2009 thanks to high oil prices will reflect a significant deficit. Indeed, with average price for oil basket of Venezuela’s US $60 per barrel and a level of exports of two million barrels a day, the BCV could lose more than $10 billion of its reserves in order to finance imports, the payment of the external debt service and other expenses abroad.
The Government has argued that it will implement a plan even more intense rationing in the delivery of foreign currency, such as the Minister of planning, Haimad El Troudi announced. In this case, two are expected results. On the one hand, the shortage of some food items, household appliances, spare parts goods or vehicles, and on the other, the rise of the dollar on the parallel market. In the event that the against the decrease of oil revenues, Government elects to shrink imports, it won’t but accelerate the contraction of the economy and bring the date of the recession there is no doubt, as he puts it Fernando Luis Egana, the budget Act of 2009 introduced by Ali Rodriguez, estimated price of oil at $60 and 3,800,000 barrels per day production, nearly 4 million.